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Research & Insights

From the desk blotter.

Volatility regimes, market structure, strategy audits — the work our research desk produces for members, published here free. Because informed members trade better, and research that can't survive daylight isn't research.

Volatility Featured

Volatility Regimes After the Fed Pivot

Front-month volatility went to sleep on the June cut; the wings and the vol-of-vol complex refuse to join it. The desk tags this regime "late calm" — here is the framework, and what we'd rather own before the tape votes.

Daniel Okafor · Head of Research JUN 24, 2026 · 11 MIN READ
The Archive

Research, time-stamped.

Every note stays published — the prescient calls and the humbling ones alike. That is the point of a time stamp.

Volatility

Volatility Regimes After the Fed Pivot

Term structure says calm; skew says hedge. Reading the disagreement — and how we're positioned into September.

JUN 24, 202611 MIN READ
Market Structure

0DTE Options: Liquidity Mirage or Real Edge?

Same-day expiries are now 55% of SPX volume. What the intraday gamma map actually rewards — and punishes.

JUN 11, 20269 MIN READ
Risk

Position Sizing Under Fat Tails

Kelly is a ceiling, not a target. A practical sizing framework for strategies with skewed payoff distributions.

MAY 28, 202613 MIN READ
Options Strategy

Earnings Season Playbook: Q3 2026

Implied moves are pricing the quietest reporting season since 2021. Where event risk still looks mispriced — and the defined-risk structures that fit it.

JUL 1, 20268 MIN READ
Market Structure

The Gamma Squeeze, Dissected

Dealer hedging didn't cause the melt-up on its own — but it set the dosage. A forensic pass through three sessions when gamma ran the tape.

MAY 14, 202612 MIN READ
Volatility

Skew, Smile, and What the Tape Knows

The smile is a probability map drawn by people paid to be paranoid. How to read 25-delta risk reversals without fooling yourself.

APR 30, 202610 MIN READ
Options Strategy

The Wheel, Audited: 24 Months of Member Fills

We pulled 11,400 anonymized member fills to audit the internet's favorite income strategy. The edge is real, smaller than advertised, and it lives in strike selection.

APR 16, 202615 MIN READ
Macro

Rates, Real Yields, and Equity Vol

When real yields move two sigma, equity volatility usually follows within weeks. The transmission chain — and where it broke down in 2025.

APR 2, 20269 MIN READ
Risk

Drawdown Math Every Trader Gets Wrong

A 30% loss needs a 43% recovery, and that's the friendly part. The asymmetries that quietly govern sizing, leverage, and career length.

MAR 19, 20267 MIN READ

Peak Signal research is educational market commentary, not individualized investment advice or a solicitation to transact. Member-fill audits use anonymized, opt-in data. Past performance — actual or backtested — is no guarantee of future results.